Tuesday, April 10th Heartland Newsletter  04/09/12 4:56:44 PM Printer Friendly VersionPrinter Friendly Version

 

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April 10, 2012
www.heartlandinvest.com 701-222-0221 or 1-800-359-0221
 
 
 
 
 
What I've Learned


 
    "Success isn't a result of spontaneous combustion. 

You must set yourself on fire."

- Arnold H. Glasow

 

Commentary

Supply demand numbers are out in the morning. Bottom line is South American numbers have pretty much dialed in a 4-5 MMT reduction. More than that will put beans at $15.00 plus or less than those expected cuts put beans back under $14.00 real quick. Corn, beans and wheat are all looking for carry-outs to be tweaked lower for US.

  

 


The US dollar is stalled under 80.50. Closing above that will probably crush crude oil in $100 and cause the CRB to take a negative tone on.


 

US Dollar Daily Chart    

 

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Corn

Corn is correcting it's strength from last week. Look for 641-645 to be very solid support to buy, risking 630 on a closing basis.

May Corn Intra-Day Chart

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Beans

  Support is 1410-1415. The August 31, 2011 high at 1468 should be challenged soon. Tomorrow's report stands in the way.
 

 May Bean Intra-day Chart

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Wheat

  



Take a look at the chart below. If you are short new crop wheat since late Sept. 2011 you have a loss. Since we did not sell  at the first of Sept new crop like we did on old crop sweeping the bin selling, we have stared at weekly charts and those have showed us consistently as long as the spot price stayed above 780, a rally would someday take care of us. That someday is now and I think we will see a reasonable price rise in the next 30 days.

     Sept Minn Wheat Daily Chart

 

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Live Cattle and Feeder Cattle
It was a mixed bag for cattle futures as consolidation was the theme of the day.  Early feedlot offers started the week at 121-122.  Packers are now losing $121 per head, although beef cutouts were higher at midday (choice 178.25 +.64, select 176.59 +1.29).  Look for the market to forge a trading range low in the weeks ahead.

  April Live Cattle Daily Chart

 

August Feeder Cattle Daily Chart

Gold

 Look for 1660-1662 to be resistance that will get sold in gold for now.

Gold Intra-Day Chart

gold chart

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Crude

Bottom line here is crude oil is failing to hold the 103.00 value much sooner than I thought it would fail. The US dollar is becoming a more dominate feature again and Iran has been quiet for awhile. If oil closes under physiological support of $100, look for a liquidation phase that could carry oil initially to 95.00-96.00.  .    

                                                         May Crude Oil Daily Chart

  
 

04-02-12

 
Link (in blue) below to view the latest market prediction interview on KFYR - TV:

--> Watch Eugene On the News <--
 
 

 

 
 
 
» Hedge Recommendations

 

Corn:

2011 production

1-24-12 Sold 20% @ 634 March.

1-11-12 sold 20 % at 653 March.

8-24-11 sold 20% at 7.42 December. 

3-30-11 sold 20% at 608 March 1012


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Soybeans:

2011 production

1-24-12  Sold 20% @ 1225 March.

1-11-12 Sold 20% at 1207 March.

3-19-11 Sold 20% of 2011 beans at 1350 on the November 2011 contract.

10-14-11 Sold 20% of 2011 production at 1281 on the Jan. 2012 contract.  

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 HRS Wheat:  

2011 production

2-28-12 Cashed a 22 cent profit in on a 40% futures sale to be added to a cash sale.

2- 1-12 Sold 20% of 2011 crop on the May contract at 828

1-11-12 Sold 20% on the board at 816 March with basis not locked.

8-24-11 sold 20% at 931 December.

3-29-11 Sold 20% at 910 on the Dec 2011 HRS contract.  For winter wheat producers sold the Sept KC wheat at 883.


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Cattle

 
 
 For January, March, April, and May Feeder Cattle...Covered 100% of production buying puts and selling calls. Covered the calls in the December break near $1.00 for most.

 
NOTE: With the exception of livestock, all trades will be entered in the electronic markets unless otherwise noted. Hedge recommendations and Trade recommendations are totally separate, and may sometimes conflict with one another. It is strongly suggested that Spec trades and Hedge trades be done in separate accounts.
 
Heartland Advantage Chart

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A word to the Wise             

              

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is intended for informational purposes only and is the opinion of the writer and may change at any time. This information was compiled from sources believed to be reliable to Heartland Investor Capital Management , Inc. but accuracy cannot be and is not guaranteed. There is no warranty, expressed or implied, in regards to this information for any particular purpose. There is SIGNIFICANT RISK of LOSS involved in trading futures and / or options on futures and may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should consider these RISKS and evaluate their suitability based on their financial conditions. No one should ever consider trading futures or options on futures with anything other than RISK CAPITAL . NO LIABILITY  on the part of the author exists for any trading loss you may incur in the use of this information. The information contained in this newsletter is privileged, confidential and protected from disclosure. Any further disclosure or use, distribution, dissemination or copying of this message or any attachment is strictly prohibited.

Newsletter provided by Heartland Investor Capital Management, Inc. a registered CTA with the NFA, of which Eugene Graner is principal. This entity is a separate legal entity from the Introducing Broker Heartland Investor Services.

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Copyright © 2012 Heartland Investor Capital Management All rights reserved


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