Friday 02-24-2012 Newsletter  02/23/12 3:39:54 PM Printer Friendly VersionPrinter Friendly Version

 

 

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February 24, 2012
www.heartlandinvest.com 701-222-0221 or 1-800-359-0221
 
 
 
 
Thursday's Thoughts
 
What I've Learned


 
"Nobody stands taller than those willing to stand corrected."

 

Commentary

  There are four long trading days to finish out the month of February.  As we stated in Tuesday's newsletter, IF the February lows are higher than the January lows, there is a high statistical probability that grains will rally into early summer.  So far, prices are well confined within last week's trading range.

The USDA's Annual Outlook Forum is scheduled for today and Friday. Analysts are anticipating a big jump in corn acres, and that has led to a resumption of spread trading, as soybeans are attempting to buy acres away from corn.

 

US Dollar Daily Chart    

 

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Corn

Corn never did get above the upper neckline to confirm a head and shoulders bottom.  March 1st typically brings buying so support needs to hold.  Bull spreading (buying the front, selling the back months) was the dominant feature of the day.  From a technical perspective, this could be construed as friendly for corn.

  Dec Corn Daily Chart

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Beans

The target we have referred to is getting near.  A close over 1315 sends it to 1400, which wouldn't be a big surprise as the battle for acres could be just getting started.
 

May Bean Daily Chart

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Wheat

The 785-790 support area needs to hold when May takes over as spot month, or the bottom could fall out.  The Thursday-Friday Ag Forum should put the bad news into the market and forge a low, unless more moisture comes to the Northern Plains and Canada.

  March Mpls Wheat Daily Chart

 

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Live Cattle and Feeder Cattle
Cattle futures saw some profit taking today after yesterday's negatively construed cold storage report.  January 31st cold storage stocks for beef came in at 482.07 million pounds, which was up 4% from last year, and 5% from last month.  Beef stocks normally do not change much in January.  Feedlot offers are in the 132 area and packer margins are still $25 in the red, even with choice cutouts (197) approaching the $200 BSE spike high.  It will be a monumental achievement to push through that level, but for now, it appears to be inevitable.  Estimates for Friday's Cattle On Feed report are as follows:  On Feed 102.5%, Placements 99%, Marketings 100%.

  April Live Cattle Daily Chart

 

August Feeder Cattle Daily Chart

Gold

Gold broke out of the wedge formation, and it appears to be heading for the mid-1800s that we referred to in the last newsletter.  Central bank easing and technical buying are the dominant forces.

Gold Daily Chart

gold chart

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Crude

  The 114 objective appears to be in play, as pullbacks to the breakout area continue to be bought.

                                                         April Crude Oil Daily Chart

     April Gasoline Daily Chart
 

01-30-12

 
Link (in blue) below to view the latest market prediction interview on KFYR - TV:

--> Watch Eugene On the News <--
 
 

 

 
 
 
» Hedge Recommendations

 

Corn:

2011 production

1-24-12 Sold 20% @ 634 March.

1-11-12 sold 20 % at 653 March.

8-24-11 sold 20% at 7.42 December. 

3-30-11 sold 20% at 608 March 1012


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Soybeans:

2011 production

1-24-12  Sold 20% @ 1225 March.

1-11-12 Sold 20% at 1207 March.

3-19-11 Sold 20% of 2011 beans at 1350 on the November 2011 contract.

10-14-11 Sold 20% of 2011 production at 1281 on the Jan. 2012 contract.  

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 HRS Wheat:  

2011 production

2- 1-12 Sold 20% of 2011 crop on the May contract at 828

1-11-12 Sold 20% on the board at 816 March with basis not locked.

8-24-11 sold 20% at 931 December.

3-29-11 Sold 20% at 910 on the Dec 2011 HRS contract.  For winter wheat producers sold the Sept KC wheat at 883.


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Cattle

 
 
 For January, March, April, and May Feeder Cattle...Covered 100% of production buying puts and selling calls. Covered the calls in the December break near $1.00 for most.

 
NOTE: With the exception of livestock, all trades will be entered in the electronic markets unless otherwise noted. Hedge recommendations and Trade recommendations are totally separate, and may sometimes conflict with one another. It is strongly suggested that Spec trades and Hedge trades be done in separate accounts.
 
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A word to the Wise             

              

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is intended for informational purposes only and is the opinion of the writer and may change at any time. This information was compiled from sources believed to be reliable to Heartland Investor Capital Management , Inc. but accuracy cannot be and is not guaranteed. There is no warranty, expressed or implied, in regards to this information for any particular purpose. There is SIGNIFICANT RISK of LOSS involved in trading futures and / or options on futures and may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should consider these RISKS and evaluate their suitability based on their financial conditions. No one should ever consider trading futures or options on futures with anything other than RISK CAPITAL . NO LIABILITY  on the part of the author exists for any trading loss you may incur in the use of this information. The information contained in this newsletter is privileged, confidential and protected from disclosure. Any further disclosure or use, distribution, dissemination or copying of this message or any attachment is strictly prohibited.

Newsletter provided by Heartland Investor Capital Management, Inc. a registered CTA with the NFA, of which Eugene Graner is principal. This entity is a separate legal entity from the Introducing Broker Heartland Investor Services.

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Copyright © 2012 Heartland Investor Capital Management All rights reserved



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