It's all weather and I will say today's closes in corn, beans and wheat are set to again make another bolt higher, as they avoided the chance to break in price today. The GFS and European weather models are in good agreement for the next 8 days, but differ in their 9-15day forecasts. The GFS forecast calls for very cool and dry weather across the Midwest at midday Tuesday, but the overnight forecast was warm/hot with rain chances increasing in the 12-15 day period. Forecasters therefore are wary of placing too much emphasis on the GFS until there is more consistency. The EU model is dry. Another 12-48 hours of heat is forecast across the central US before a cool front produces rain and cooler temps in the western Midwest and more seasonal temp readings in the eastern Midwest. Unfortunately, the rain chances look to be limited in the eastern Midwest/Delta for the next week and crop stress will be on the rise.
Soybeans had led the way higher yesterday on talk that US double crop soybean acreage may fall short of expectations due to dryness in the southeastern ½ of the Midwest. Traders are expecting a 1-2 million acre increase in next Friday's report even though history shows the trade being overly optimistic on soybean acres in the June report in 4 of the last 6 years, including last year's 1.2 million acre miss. Respected crop scout Dr. Michael Cordinnier cut his US corn yield 2bpa to 159bpa in addition to cutting his soy yield 0.5bpa to 42.5bpa, also warning that dry weather may cut double crop area.
We are 50% sold new crop beans and wheat and 30% on corn. Stay close, because this rally can be done by Friday or early next week and we will sell spike rallies Via the phone text and email service.
US Dollar Intraday Chart
Corn
December corn has broken through the first resistance 550 area. This should become solid support, unless the fickle weather forecasts change.
Cancel the sell order for March Corn at 585.
December Corn Intraday Chart
Beans
November beans have banged up against the 1395 resistance area numerous times, and are now knocking on the door again. Statistically, the odds favor breaking through, unless rain clouds miraculously appear over southern Illinois and Indiana.
November DailyBean Chart
Wheat
July Minneapolis put in quite the performance today (plus 42 cents), most likely because of drought concerns in Europe. September looks like it wants to go the red line 810 resistance area at the very least.
SeptemberMinneapolis Wheat Daily Chart
Live Cattle and Feeder Cattle
The cash cattle arena is very quiet, with bids at 114 and offers at 121. Choice cutouts are sitting in the 198 area, sniffing at the $200 BSE historical highs. One of these days (probably not now), $200 will become support after it breaks through. Packer margins are now $47.75 in the black. All the short term fundamentals will weigh on the market for a while, but look out for fireworks down the road.
August Live Cattle Daily Chart
August Feeder Cattle Daily Chart
Gold
Fed decision phobia led to lots of volatility today. Gold really looks like it wants to take out the line of resistance and shoot to the upside. But, if it fails again, look out below..
Gold Daily Chart
Crude
This market can barely see even a dead cat bounce. It doesn't even care anymore about rallies in the US Dollar, which implies that the path of least resistance is lower.
Crude Oil Daily Chart
06-18-12
Link (in blue) below to view the latest market prediction interview on KFYR - TV:
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Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is intended for informational purposes only and is the opinion of the writer and may change at any time. This information was compiled from sources believed to be reliable to Heartland Investor Capital Management , Inc. but accuracy cannot be and is not guaranteed. There is no warranty, expressed or implied, in regards to this information for any particular purpose. There is SIGNIFICANT RISK of LOSS involved in trading futures and / or options on futures and may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should consider these RISKS and evaluate their suitability based on their financial conditions. No one should ever consider trading futures or options on futures with anything other than RISK CAPITAL . NO LIABILITY on the part of the author exists for any trading loss you may incur in the use of this information. The information contained in this newsletter is privileged, confidential and protected from disclosure. Any further disclosure or use, distribution, dissemination or copying of this message or any attachment is strictly prohibited.
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July Minneapolis put in quite the performance today (plus 42 cents), most likely because of drought concerns in Europe. September looks like it wants to go the red line 810 resistance area at the very least.
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