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"Anyone can hide. Facing up to things,
working through them, that's what makes you strong."
Sarah Dessen
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Commentary |
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Today's noon radio report is my commentary, listen to it. Click the link below.
Market talk link here
The selling from Friday and Monday may have mostly been tied to CFTC regulations that are coming as AG Resource is reporting. There is talk in the hedge fund world that the commodity liquidation of the past few days is due to Dodd/Frank legislation that would have caused existing swap trades to be issued/transferred as futures as of today. The CME won an extension late Friday on the legislation that pushed the deadline forward to year end. But it appears that some funds were already in liquidation mode due to higher capital requirements and enlarged volatility of futures. The selling from these firms wanting to avoid net long or short futures positions should be nearing an end late today. Look for some sort of recovery thereafter as fundamentals come back into view with cash markets trading well above delivery for November soybeans. The selling in grains, metals and energies just feels very institutional in its recent make up in recent days.
US Dollar Daily Chart
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Corn |
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In the two day liquidation since the report, corn has dropped as far as it can before giving up to technical damage. Turn-around-Tuesday has to become a reality. Support is 732 and 750 is the resistance that has to be closed back above to confirm support is here.
December Corn intraday Chart
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Beans |
Beans not only made it down to the July 4th gap, 1478 makes the 5th wave down here match the 1st wave which is a technical objective. A bearish 3 wave advance can unfold into January, and a "b" wave can carry as high as 1750. That works for sales.
Nov Bean Daily Chart
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Wheat
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The 38% retracement area of 910-920 continues to offer the downside support here. A close above 962 is needed to get out of this range. The talk is world stocks are being drawed down in Europe because they are feeding it and will eventualy have to buy corn.
Minn. Dec Wheat Daily Chart
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Live Cattle and Feeder Cattle |
As of Friday, packer margins were $32 per head in the red, but that will most likely improve, as choice cutouts were sharply higher today (+2.22 at 193.89). Lower corn gave feeder cattle a little spark of life, but this could be short-lived for now if corn finds legs again. Nothing has changed....defensive trading in the short term, but when the moisture starts materializing, the bulls will come running out of the pasture.
December Live Cattle Daily Chart
November Feeder Cattle Daily Chart
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Gold
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Amazing how resistance just could not be overcome at 1800. The resistance timed out also with the presidential debates on Oct 5, implying a new president is possible and things will change. 1720 is the next level of support.
December Gold Daily Chart
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Crude |
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Crude found legs at the 88.00 value and now looks to be trapped on the upside at 94.00. The US dollar is chopping sideways, so expect the same on oil till the US dollar trends one way or the other.
November Crude Oil Daily Chart
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10-15-12
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NOTE: With the exception of livestock, all trades will be entered in the electronic markets unless otherwise noted. Hedge recommendations and Trade recommendations are totally separate, and may sometimes conflict with one another. It is strongly suggested that Spec trades and Hedge trades be done in separate accounts.
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A word to the Wise
Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is intended for informational purposes only and is the opinion of the writer and may change at any time. This information was compiled from sources believed to be reliable to Heartland Investor Capital Management , Inc. but accuracy cannot be and is not guaranteed. There is no warranty, expressed or implied, in regards to this information for any particular purpose. There is SIGNIFICANT RISK of LOSS involved in trading futures and / or options on futures and may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should consider these RISKS and evaluate their suitability based on their financial conditions. No one should ever consider trading futures or options on futures with anything other than RISK CAPITAL . NO LIABILITY on the part of the author exists for any trading loss you may incur in the use of this information. The information contained in this newsletter is privileged, confidential and protected from disclosure. Any further disclosure or use, distribution, dissemination or copying of this message or any attachment is strictly prohibited.
Newsletter provided by Heartland Investor Capital Management, Inc. a registered CTA with the NFA, of which Eugene Graner is principal. This entity is a separate legal entity from the Introducing Broker Heartland Investor Services.
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